Senators vs. Sharks
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (80%) · Senators at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Senators
5
Senators 80%
$6.7K
-$54.98
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSenators at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA para-Vision | Senatorsavg 56¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | +$36.42 | 56% 209-165 (374) |
 fyrsken | Senatorsavg 56.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$60 | 49% 276-287 (563) |
CO cocococococo | Senatorsavg 55.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$32.08 | 52% 1656-1527 (3183) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Senatorsavg 56.2¢ | $92.56 | $92.99 | +$0.43 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Sharksavg 45¢ | $11.7 | $11.96 | +$0.26 | 50% 5838-5942 (11780) |
Invested
$4,079.13
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$36.42
Record
56%
209-165 (374)
fyrskenInvested
$1,410
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$60
Record
49%
276-287 (563)
Invested
$1,164.69
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$32.08
Record
52%
1656-1527 (3183)
Invested
$92.56
Value
$92.99
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$11.96
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
5838-5942 (11780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.