Spread: Senators (-1.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Penguins (20%) · Penguins at 87¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 15

Senators14¢Penguins86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Penguins

Consensus Traders

Penguins 20%

Total Value

$37.0K

Combined PnL

$700.51

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 86.5¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Senators14%

Penguins87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penguins2 traders

Total Value$31.4K

Total Shares35,903

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Senators8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares37,381

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Penguins — 20%Senators — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSenators 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Senators 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Penguinsavg 67¢	$24.0K	$31.4K	+$7.4K	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Senatorsavg 33¢	$11.5K	$5.2K	$-6.3K	38% 16-26 (42)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Senatorsavg 32¢	$455.3	$213.42	-$241.88	45% 82-100 (182)
38 38791873984189CTR	Senatorsavg 33¢	$198	$90	-$108	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 13.9¢	$43.07	$38.81	-$4.26	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
0xheavy888<$100	Penguinsavg 66¢	$9.71	$9.85	+$0.15	56% 566-451 (1017)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Senatorsavg 32¢	$4.71	$4.71	-$0	48% 372-398 (770)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 32¢	$2.94	$2.94	+$0	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 33¢	$4.95	$2.25	-$2.7	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Senatorsavg 12¢	$1.02	$1.06	+$0.04	48% 2318-2517 (4835)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Penguins

Invested

$24,045.31

Value

$31.4K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

chubbytoroCTR

Senators

Invested

$11,549.97

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

38%

16-26 (42)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Senators

Invested

$455.3

Value

$213.42

PnL

-$241.88

Record

45%

82-100 (182)

38791873984189CTR

Senators

Invested

$198

Value

$90

PnL

-$108

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$43.07

Value

$38.81

PnL

-$4.26

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

0xheavy888<$100

Penguins

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

566-451 (1017)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

372-398 (770)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$4.95

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.7

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSenators 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Senators 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penguins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.