Rangers vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (18%) · Under at 52¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 18%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$52.82

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,086

Combined PnL-$49.22

Over9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,131

Combined PnL+$102.04

Under — 18%Over — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$49.82	53% 535-466 (1001)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$52.72	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$38.7	43% 68-91 (159)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48¢	$465.6	$470.45	+$4.85	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 48¢	$355.2	$358.9	+$3.7	47% 191-212 (403)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$100.13	$101.17	+$1.04	53% 390-340 (730)
fyrsken<$100	Underavg 51¢	$61.9	$62.51	+$0.61	52% 46-43 (89)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$21.6	$21.83	+$0.22	55% 248-199 (447)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$18.37	$18.94	+$0.57	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$14.4	$14.55	+$0.15	49% 1307-1356 (2663)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.48	+$0.08	40% 589-893 (1482)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$5,181.8

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$49.82

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,687

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$52.72

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,238.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$38.7

Record

43%

68-91 (159)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$465.6

Value

$470.45

PnL

+$4.85

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$355.2

Value

$358.9

PnL

+$3.7

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$100.13

Value

$101.17

PnL

+$1.04

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

fyrsken<$100

Under

Invested

$61.9

Value

$62.51

PnL

+$0.61

Record

52%

46-43 (89)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.83

PnL

+$0.22

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.37

Value

$18.94

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

40%

589-893 (1482)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.