Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Canucks, while the market favors Rangers (96%). 4 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rangers (-1.5)

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Canucks (27%) · Canucks at 4.0¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 14

Rangers96¢Canucks4¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Canucks

Consensus Traders

Canucks 27%

Total Value

$47.6K

Combined PnL

-$661.82

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 4¢

-93% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCanucks at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

4 of 15 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Rangers 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rangers96%

Canucks4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rangers11 traders

Total Value$40.8K

Total Shares47,350

Combined PnL+$19.8K

Canucks4 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares48,835

Combined PnL$-20.5K

Rangers — 73%Canucks — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Canucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRangers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRangers 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Rangers 73% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rangersavg 44¢	$18.1K	$35.2K	+$17.1K	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Canucksavg 55.9¢	$27.3K	$6.8K	$-20.4K	53% 105-94 (199)
AN AnonymousUsername	Rangersavg 43¢	$1.1K	$2.2K	+$1.1K	44% 75-94 (169)
nigiri99	Rangersavg 44.1¢	$634.03	$1.2K	+$601.79	51% 499-470 (969)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Rangersavg 44¢	$352	$688	+$336	23% 294-994 (1288)
0xheavy888	Rangersavg 43¢	$224.18	$427.27	+$213.96	55% 441-368 (809)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Rangersavg 43.5¢	$181.56	$358.62	+$177.06	48% 269-290 (559)
38 38791873984189	Rangersavg 44¢	$158.84	$310.46	+$151.62	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FL Flaznorp	Rangersavg 63.6¢	$146.37	$221.04	+$74.67	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
poshposh<$100	Rangersavg 73.5¢	$81.25	$95.12	+$13.87	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rangersavg 71.2¢	$47	$56.79	+$9.8	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Canucksavg 55¢	$15.31	$8.51	-$1.8	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Rangersavg 55¢	$2.75	$4.8	+$2.05	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Canucksavg 56¢	$1.47	$1.18	-$0.29	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
US User7429CTR<$100	Canucksavg 61¢	$18.01	$1.17	-$16.84	39% 296-462 (758)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rangers

Invested

$18,063.04

Value

$35.2K

PnL

+$17.1K

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

taylorsversionCTR

Canucks

Invested

$27,269.01

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-20.4K

Record

53%

105-94 (199)

AnonymousUsername

Rangers

Invested

$1,089.19

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

44%

75-94 (169)

nigiri99

Rangers

Invested

$634.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$601.79

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Rangers

Invested

$352

Value

$688

PnL

+$336

Record

23%

294-994 (1288)

0xheavy888

Rangers

Invested

$224.18

Value

$427.27

PnL

+$213.96

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Rangers

Invested

$181.56

Value

$358.62

PnL

+$177.06

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

38791873984189

Rangers

Invested

$158.84

Value

$310.46

PnL

+$151.62

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Flaznorp

Rangers

Invested

$146.37

Value

$221.04

PnL

+$74.67

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

poshposh<$100

Rangers

Invested

$81.25

Value

$95.12

PnL

+$13.87

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

Pan9X<$100

Rangers

Invested

$47

Value

$56.79

PnL

+$9.8

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$15.31

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$1.8

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

ferdinand2<$100

Rangers

Invested

$2.75

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$2.05

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

suntoriCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

User7429CTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$18.01

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$16.84

Record

39%

296-462 (758)

Research grade

AvoidCanucks at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

4 of 15 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Rangers 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Canucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRangers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRangers 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Rangers 73% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1828.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

1928.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.