Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 8.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 94¢ · $290 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$289.89
$17.1
78.3¢ → 94¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 77.2¢ | $137.63 | $154.92 | +$17.29 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
PA Pan9X | Underavg 79.6¢ | $126.77 | $106.58 | -$1.55 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 24.6¢ | $15.58 | $15.58 | +$0 | 29% 115-287 (402) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $10.14 | $11.57 | +$1.43 | 18% 89-400 (489) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $1.23 | -$0.07 | 51% 62-60 (122) |
Invested
$137.63
Value
$154.92
PnL
+$17.29
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$126.77
Value
$106.58
PnL
-$1.55
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$15.58
Value
$15.58
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
115-287 (402)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$11.57
PnL
+$1.43
Record
18%
89-400 (489)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
62-60 (122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.