Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 88¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$7.8K
$-1.4K
70.9¢ → 88¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 71¢ | $5.3K | $5.0K | -$306.52 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Overavg 29.1¢ | $2.6K | $1.5K | $-1.1K | 1% 1-187 (188) |
GA Gaditima | Underavg 70¢ | $610.25 | $584.1 | -$26.15 | 51% 62-60 (122) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 27¢ | $234.89 | $287.09 | +$52.2 | 54% 1541-1296 (2837) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 70.6¢ | $209.68 | $191.07 | -$18.6 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 71¢ | $161.12 | $151.44 | -$9.68 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 70.3¢ | $64.5 | $21.31 | -$3.7 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 33.1¢ | $32.44 | $16.68 | -$15.75 | 29% 115-287 (402) |
Invested
$5,348.84
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$306.52
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
Invested
$2,567.23
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
1%
1-187 (188)
Invested
$610.25
Value
$584.1
PnL
-$26.15
Record
51%
62-60 (122)
Invested
$234.89
Value
$287.09
PnL
+$52.2
Record
54%
1541-1296 (2837)
Invested
$209.68
Value
$191.07
PnL
-$18.6
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$161.12
Value
$151.44
PnL
-$9.68
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$64.5
Value
$21.31
PnL
-$3.7
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$32.44
Value
$16.68
PnL
-$15.75
Record
29%
115-287 (402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.