Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 56¢ · $612 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$611.55
-$40.72
70.6¢ → 56.5¢
-20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 72.8¢ | $264.47 | $231.35 | -$33.12 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 72.8¢ | $212.44 | $176.45 | -$35.99 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 37.4¢ | $52.03 | $54.91 | +$2.88 | |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 71.9¢ | $238.75 | $225.79 | -$12.95 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $75.89 | $49.97 | -$25.91 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $36.69 | $39.75 | +$3.06 | 12% 22-166 (188) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $36 | $34 | -$2 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $27.27 | $25.94 | -$1.33 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $6.33 | $4.75 | -$1.58 | 54% 1541-1296 (2837) |
Invested
$264.47
Value
$231.35
PnL
-$33.12
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.75
Value
$225.79
PnL
-$12.95
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$75.89
Value
$49.97
PnL
-$25.91
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Invested
$36.69
Value
$39.75
PnL
+$3.06
Record
12%
22-166 (188)
Invested
$36
Value
$34
PnL
-$2
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$27.27
Value
$25.94
PnL
-$1.33
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$6.33
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$1.58
Record
54%
1541-1296 (2837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.