Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Islanders, while the market favors Sharks (92%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Islanders (-2.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Islanders (71%) · Islanders at 8.0¢ · $468 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Islanders
7
Islanders 71%
$468.07
-$185.51
22.3¢ → 8¢
-64% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidIslanders at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Sharks 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Islandersavg 22¢ | $344.33 | $219.12 | -$125.21 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Sharksavg 72¢ | $90.25 | $90.25 | +$0 | 18% 89-400 (489) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Sharksavg 77¢ | $77 | $72 | -$5 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Islandersavg 22¢ | $84.7 | $53.9 | -$30.8 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Islandersavg 27.9¢ | $38.15 | $19.18 | -$18.98 | 54% 1541-1296 (2837) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Islandersavg 19.8¢ | $18.96 | $13.44 | -$5.52 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Islandersavg 14¢ | $0.19 | $0.19 | -$0 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$344.33
Value
$219.12
PnL
-$125.21
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
Invested
$90.25
Value
$90.25
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
89-400 (489)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$77
Value
$72
PnL
-$5
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$84.7
Value
$53.9
PnL
-$30.8
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$38.15
Value
$19.18
PnL
-$18.98
Record
54%
1541-1296 (2837)
Invested
$18.96
Value
$13.44
PnL
-$5.52
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.