Spread: Wild (-1.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Islanders (57%) · Islanders at 78¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 30

Wild22¢Islanders78¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Islanders

Consensus Traders

Islanders 57%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$663.64

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 78¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Wild22%

Islanders78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Islanders4 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares7,223

Combined PnL+$693.2

Wild3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,673

Combined PnL-$29.57

Islanders — 57%Wild — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIslanders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIslanders 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedIslanders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Islanders 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Islandersavg 58¢	$2.9K	$4.3K	+$126.2	55% 7008-5622 (12630)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Wildavg 41¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$29.27	54% 2298-1976 (4274)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Islandersavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$556.5	54% 4831-4067 (8898)
fyrskenCTR	Wildavg 41¢	$738	$738	-$0	50% 273-278 (551)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Islandersavg 59¢	$23.6	$33.8	+$10.2	54% 2953-2534 (5487)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Islandersavg 85¢	$17	$17.3	+$0.3	57% 2136-1591 (3727)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Wildavg 15¢	$3	$2.7	-$0.3	86% 4948-822 (5770)

0xheavy888

Islanders

Invested

$2,936.92

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$126.2

Record

55%

7008-5622 (12630)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Wild

Invested

$2,399.73

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$29.27

Record

54%

2298-1976 (4274)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Islanders

Invested

$1,218

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$556.5

Record

54%

4831-4067 (8898)

fyrskenCTR

Wild

Invested

$738

Value

$738

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

273-278 (551)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Islanders

Invested

$23.6

Value

$33.8

PnL

+$10.2

Record

54%

2953-2534 (5487)

NordhavenCap<$100

Islanders

Invested

$17

Value

$17.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

57%

2136-1591 (3727)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Wild

Invested

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIslanders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIslanders 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedIslanders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Islanders 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Islanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.