Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 9.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 11¢ · $708 held · ended Nov 15

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$708.03

Combined PnL

-$66.8

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 11¢

-73% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$597.02

Total Shares1,654

Combined PnL-$55.1

Under3 traders

Total Value$111.02

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$11.7

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$353.84	$354.48	+$0.64	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 28.3¢	$96.99	$87.5	-$9.49	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 73.7¢	$77.84	$85.01	+$7.17	38% 217-352 (569)
GA GaditimaCTR	Overavg 69.7¢	$104.5	$69	-$35.5	49% 359-370 (729)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 35.5¢	$88.58	$34.9	-$21.11	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 88¢	$44	$25.5	-$18.5	55% 631-510 (1141)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$6.12	$23.46	+$17.34	44% 316-399 (715)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 26.1¢	$16.52	$17.39	+$0.87	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 21.3¢	$13.12	$6.77	-$6.35	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.32	$2.42	+$0.11	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$2.7	$1.1	-$1.6	48% 2431-2662 (5093)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 88¢	$0.88	$0.51	-$0.37	42% 810-1105 (1915)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$353.84

Value

$354.48

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$96.99

Value

$87.5

PnL

-$9.49

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$77.84

Value

$85.01

PnL

+$7.17

Record

38%

217-352 (569)

GaditimaCTR

Over

Invested

$104.5

Value

$69

PnL

-$35.5

Record

49%

359-370 (729)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.58

Value

$34.9

PnL

-$21.11

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$44

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$18.5

Record

55%

631-510 (1141)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.12

Value

$23.46

PnL

+$17.34

Record

44%

316-399 (715)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.52

Value

$17.39

PnL

+$0.87

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.12

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$6.35

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$1.6

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.37

Record

42%

810-1105 (1915)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.