Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 8.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 47¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$392.86

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 46.5¢

-18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$517.12

Total Shares968

Combined PnL+$221.02

Over7 traders

Total Value$808.89

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$171.84

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 30.6¢	$291.19	$509.62	+$218.43	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 57.9¢	$313.73	$417.34	+$103.61	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$160.26	$230.51	+$70.26	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$40.95	$50.05	+$9.1	49% 359-370 (729)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 68.7¢	$85.86	$46.94	+$4.85	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$60	$46.5	-$13.5	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 77¢	$12.83	$12.83	+$0	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 26¢	$2.6	$5.35	+$2.75	48% 2431-2662 (5093)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$7.2	$4.72	-$2.48	43% 409-552 (961)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 39.7¢	$2.31	$2.15	-$0.16	38% 217-352 (569)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$291.19

Value

$509.62

PnL

+$218.43

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$313.73

Value

$417.34

PnL

+$103.61

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$160.26

Value

$230.51

PnL

+$70.26

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.95

Value

$50.05

PnL

+$9.1

Record

49%

359-370 (729)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.86

Value

$46.94

PnL

+$4.85

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$13.5

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.83

Value

$12.83

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$2.75

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.2

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$2.48

Record

43%

409-552 (961)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

217-352 (569)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.