Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 39¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 38.5¢

-31% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,784

Combined PnL+$999.11

Over9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,188

Combined PnL+$25.15

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	Underavg 44¢	$2.4K	$3.4K	+$999.49	— 9-4 (13)
RO roldyCTR	Overavg 56¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$0.13	35% 11-20 (31)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 55¢	$788.19	$802.52	+$14.33	50% 2696-2676 (5372)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 54.8¢	$460.34	$470.09	+$9.74	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
QW qWOprt7CTR	Overavg 55¢	$100	$100	+$0	3% 3-85 (88)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 44¢	$68.83	$68.83	+$0	24% 205-655 (860)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 56.3¢	$50.21	$47.8	-$0.42	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$43.8	$44.64	+$0.84	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 45¢	$22.5	$22	-$0.5	56% 580-460 (1040)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 60¢	$15	$15.13	+$0.13	34% 174-332 (506)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$11	$11.2	+$0.2	51% 994-962 (1956)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$4.77	$5.04	+$0.27	38% 1351-2180 (3531)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.9	$2.95	+$0.05	53% 2078-1852 (3930)

yabanci

Under

Invested

$2,443.2

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$999.49

Record

—

9-4 (13)

roldyCTR

Over

Invested

$3,113.05

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$0.13

Record

35%

11-20 (31)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$788.19

Value

$802.52

PnL

+$14.33

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$460.34

Value

$470.09

PnL

+$9.74

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

qWOprt7CTR

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

3-85 (88)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$68.83

Value

$68.83

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

205-655 (860)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.21

Value

$47.8

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.8

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22

PnL

-$0.5

Record

56%

580-460 (1040)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$15.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

34%

174-332 (506)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.77

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.27

Record

38%

1351-2180 (3531)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.