Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 33¢ · $313 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$312.53
-$6.58
31.9¢ → 33¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 32¢ | $192 | $186 | -$6 | 47% 3580-3963 (7543) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $85.14 | $85.14 | +$0 | 51% 646-632 (1278) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $20.52 | $20.52 | +$0 | 24% 205-655 (860) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $9.05 | $9.01 | -$0.04 | 50% 1850-1880 (3730) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $9.05 | $8.76 | -$0.28 | 53% 2078-1852 (3930) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.55 | -$0.1 | 42% 763-1062 (1825) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $1.55 | -$0.15 | 49% 4352-4620 (8972) |
Invested
$192
Value
$186
PnL
-$6
Record
47%
3580-3963 (7543)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$85.14
Value
$85.14
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
646-632 (1278)
Invested
$20.52
Value
$20.52
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
205-655 (860)
Invested
$9.05
Value
$9.01
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
1850-1880 (3730)
Invested
$9.05
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
2078-1852 (3930)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$0.1
Record
42%
763-1062 (1825)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$0.15
Record
49%
4352-4620 (8972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.