Predators vs. Sharks

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (36%) · Predators at 63¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 16

Predators63¢Sharks37¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 36%

Total Value

$39.5K

Combined PnL

-$151.67

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Predators63%

Sharks38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators4 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares48,392

Combined PnL-$204.15

Sharks7 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares24,896

Combined PnL+$52.49

Predators — 36%Sharks — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPredators 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPredators 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Predators 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Predatorsavg 63.1¢	$20.1K	$19.9K	-$205.33	65% 15-8 (23)
CH ChonkVision	Predatorsavg 61¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$0	55% 198-165 (363)
AC acorpCTR	Sharksavg 39¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$63.79	— 4-3 (7)
RO roldyCTR	Sharksavg 37¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$30	44% 17-22 (39)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Sharksavg 36¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$81.32	52% 2680-2503 (5183)
PA Pan9XCTR	Sharksavg 36.4¢	$156.74	$112.53	+$5.43	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Sharksavg 50¢	$200	$73.39	+$0.21	65% 142-77 (219)
fyrsken<$100	Predatorsavg 59.7¢	$56.45	$57.64	+$1.19	49% 65-68 (133)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sharksavg 37.3¢	$68.96	$47.64	-$1.12	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Sharksavg 37¢	$32.46	$32.9	+$0.44	38% 1289-2093 (3382)
HY hydra1248<$100	Predatorsavg 62¢	$0.75	$0.74	-$0.01	75% 217-73 (290)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Predators

Invested

$20,108.27

Value

$19.9K

PnL

-$205.33

Record

65%

15-8 (23)

ChonkVision

Predators

Invested

$10,035.4

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

198-165 (363)

acorpCTR

Sharks

Invested

$4,975.62

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$63.79

Record

—

4-3 (7)

roldyCTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,220

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$30

Record

44%

17-22 (39)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Sharks

Invested

$1,951.59

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$81.32

Record

52%

2680-2503 (5183)

Pan9XCTR

Sharks

Invested

$156.74

Value

$112.53

PnL

+$5.43

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Sharks

Invested

$200

Value

$73.39

PnL

+$0.21

Record

65%

142-77 (219)

fyrsken<$100

Predators

Invested

$56.45

Value

$57.64

PnL

+$1.19

Record

49%

65-68 (133)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$68.96

Value

$47.64

PnL

-$1.12

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$32.46

Value

$32.9

PnL

+$0.44

Record

38%

1289-2093 (3382)

hydra1248<$100

Predators

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$0.01

Record

75%

217-73 (290)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPredators 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPredators 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Predators 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.