Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Predators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 38¢ · $418 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$417.69
-$120.64
55.6¢ → 37.5¢
-33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 58¢ | $320.03 | $234.5 | -$85.52 | 51% 2368-2313 (4681) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 58¢ | $114.84 | $84.15 | -$30.69 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $38.98 | $41.57 | +$2.59 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $43.52 | $36.8 | -$6.72 | 33% 144-286 (430) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $10.75 | $10.63 | -$0.13 | 48% 269-290 (559) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 58.5¢ | $10.22 | $10.04 | -$0.18 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
Invested
$320.03
Value
$234.5
PnL
-$85.52
Record
51%
2368-2313 (4681)
Invested
$114.84
Value
$84.15
PnL
-$30.69
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$38.98
Value
$41.57
PnL
+$2.59
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$43.52
Value
$36.8
PnL
-$6.72
Record
33%
144-286 (430)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$10.63
PnL
-$0.13
Record
48%
269-290 (559)
Invested
$10.22
Value
$10.04
PnL
-$0.18
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.