Predators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 94¢ · $440 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$439.76
-$15.67
85¢ → 94¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 85¢ | $441.01 | $366.34 | +$37.43 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $95.55 | $38.54 | -$57.01 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $12.87 | $14.85 | +$1.98 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $9.75 | $10.74 | +$0.99 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $6.4 | $7.05 | +$0.65 | 32% 147-308 (455) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $1.95 | $2.25 | +$0.3 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
Invested
$441.01
Value
$366.34
PnL
+$37.43
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$95.55
Value
$38.54
PnL
-$57.01
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$1.98
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$10.74
PnL
+$0.99
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$7.05
PnL
+$0.65
Record
32%
147-308 (455)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0.3
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.