Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Predators, while the market favors Golden Knights (80%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Predators (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (33%) · Predators at 21¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Predators21¢Golden Knights79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 33%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$25.51

Smart Money Entry

19.9¢ → 20.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPredators at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Predators21%

Golden Knights80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares6,801

Combined PnL+$38.58

Golden Knights6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,287

Combined PnL-$13.07

Predators — 33%Golden Knights — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGolden Knights 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Predatorsavg 19.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$43.36	53% 105-94 (199)
38 38791873984189	Golden Knightsavg 80¢	$597.6	$590.13	-$7.47	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
nigiri99	Golden Knightsavg 80¢	$180.8	$178.54	-$2.26	52% 471-427 (898)
0xheavy888	Golden Knightsavg 80¢	$180	$177.75	-$2.25	53% 388-339 (727)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Predatorsavg 21¢	$90.67	$86.35	-$4.32	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
PA Pan9X<$100	Golden Knightsavg 80.4¢	$32.95	$32.39	-$0.56	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
GH ghorrock<$100	Golden Knightsavg 80.1¢	$29.54	$29.12	-$0.42	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Predatorsavg 21¢	$9.66	$9.2	-$0.46	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Golden Knightsavg 80¢	$8.8	$8.69	-$0.11	47% 189-212 (401)

taylorsversionCTR

Predators

Invested

$1,252.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$43.36

Record

53%

105-94 (199)

38791873984189

Golden Knights

Invested

$597.6

Value

$590.13

PnL

-$7.47

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

nigiri99

Golden Knights

Invested

$180.8

Value

$178.54

PnL

-$2.26

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

0xheavy888

Golden Knights

Invested

$180

Value

$177.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Predators

Invested

$90.67

Value

$86.35

PnL

-$4.32

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Pan9X<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$32.95

Value

$32.39

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

ghorrock<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$29.54

Value

$29.12

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Predators

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

Research grade

AvoidPredators at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGolden Knights 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.