Predators vs. Kings: O/U 8.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 98¢ · $609 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$608.51
-$107.05
82¢ → 98.5¢
+20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 82¢ | $585.98 | $585.98 | +$0 | 57% 145-111 (256) |
VE VenusianCTR | Overavg 18¢ | $119.63 | $13.29 | -$106.34 | 28% 317-800 (1117) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 2¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 3¢ | $2.13 | $1.42 | -$0.71 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $0.82 | $0.82 | +$0 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
0xheavy888Invested
$585.98
Value
$585.98
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
145-111 (256)
Invested
$119.63
Value
$13.29
PnL
-$106.34
Record
28%
317-800 (1117)
Invested
$7
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$1.42
PnL
-$0.71
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.82
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.