Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Predators vs. Kings: O/U 6.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 48¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
-$94.79
47¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 46.7¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$62 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$39.95 | 28% 298-765 (1063) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $364.76 | $371.92 | +$7.15 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $549.48 | $264.72 | -$10.61 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54¢ | $165.83 | $147.5 | -$24.23 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $103.59 | $117.21 | +$13.62 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $57.06 | $57.45 | +$0.38 | 49% 220-228 (448) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $15.99 | $19.47 | +$3.48 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.5¢ | $44.06 | $17.8 | -$3.87 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $4.86 | $4.86 | -$0 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$4,045.44
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$62
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$1,877.54
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$39.95
Record
28%
298-765 (1063)
Invested
$364.76
Value
$371.92
PnL
+$7.15
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
Invested
$549.48
Value
$264.72
PnL
-$10.61
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.06
Value
$57.45
PnL
+$0.38
Record
49%
220-228 (448)
Invested
$15.99
Value
$19.47
PnL
+$3.48
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$44.06
Value
$17.8
PnL
-$3.87
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.86
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.