Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Predators vs. Kings: O/U 5.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 17¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$1.28

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 17¢

-66% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,974

Combined PnL-$10.51

Under2 traders

Total Value$176.11

Total Shares382

Combined PnL+$9.23

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$3.0K	$3.8K	+$814.16	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$2.0K	$2.9K	+$834.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.3¢	$967.04	$946.98	-$20.06
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 55.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$21.82	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 36.6¢	$266.04	$264.99	-$1.05	48% 969-1052 (2021)
0xheavy888	Underavg 43¢	$158.03	$165.38	+$7.35	55% 120-99 (219)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 36.1¢	$184.66	$164.48	+$8.81	49% 450-474 (924)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 37.3¢	$164.46	$111.14	-$31.75	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.9¢	$38.58	$61.74	+$27.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.3¢	$108.41	$49.4	-$59
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$63.81	$68.5	+$4.69	46% 91-106 (197)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$8.85	$10.73	+$1.88	54% 401-336 (737)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 61¢	$11.59	$10.45	-$1.14	30% 134-317 (451)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,996.03

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$814.16

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

Both legs:

Under$2,028.9945¢+$834.22

Over$967.0437.3¢-$20.06

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,484.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$21.82

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$266.04

Value

$264.99

PnL

-$1.05

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$158.03

Value

$165.38

PnL

+$7.35

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$184.66

Value

$164.48

PnL

+$8.81

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$164.46

Value

$111.14

PnL

-$31.75

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Under$38.5851.9¢+$27.25

Over$108.4137.3¢-$59

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.81

Value

$68.5

PnL

+$4.69

Record

46%

91-106 (197)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.85

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$1.88

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.59

Value

$10.45

PnL

-$1.14

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.