Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$67.55

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 96¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,133

Combined PnL+$144.48

Over8 traders

Total Value$54.74

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$212.03

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Underavg 94¢	$740.23	$752.22	+$11.98	52% 35-32 (67)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 65¢	$120.71	$174.53	+$53.82	52% 642-600 (1242)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 46.1¢	$73.33	$152.01	+$78.68	49% 81-83 (164)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 33.1¢	$85.19	$11.58	-$73.62	52% 1960-1815 (3775)
DA DaBossHoggCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$65	$11.14	-$53.86	8% 3-34 (37)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 41.8¢	$32.88	$10.09	-$22.79	36% 446-789 (1235)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$12	$9	-$3	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 37.9¢	$59.68	$7.08	-$52.61	47% 847-942 (1789)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 6.7¢	$4.86	$3.28	-$1.57	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$3	$2.25	-$0.75	53% 5981-5353 (11334)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$16.8	$0.32	-$3.84	45% 462-565 (1027)

pagliacci4

Under

Invested

$740.23

Value

$752.22

PnL

+$11.98

Record

52%

35-32 (67)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$120.71

Value

$174.53

PnL

+$53.82

Record

52%

642-600 (1242)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$73.33

Value

$152.01

PnL

+$78.68

Record

49%

81-83 (164)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.19

Value

$11.58

PnL

-$73.62

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

DaBossHoggCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65

Value

$11.14

PnL

-$53.86

Record

3-34 (37)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.88

Value

$10.09

PnL

-$22.79

Record

36%

446-789 (1235)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12

Value

PnL

-$3

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.68

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$52.61

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.86

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$1.57

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

5981-5353 (11334)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.8

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$3.84

Record

45%

462-565 (1027)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.