Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (92%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 3.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 8.5¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 100%
$106.97
$2.94
7.8¢ → 8.5¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 92%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 7.7¢ | $78.35 | $81.2 | +$2.85 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $21.28 | $21.28 | +$0 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 7.8¢ | $1.68 | $1.73 | +$0.05 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 7.9¢ | $1.26 | $1.28 | +$0.02 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $1.2 | $1.2 | +$0 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $0.26 | $0.28 | +$0.02 | 38% 352-584 (936) |
Invested
$78.35
Value
$81.2
PnL
+$2.85
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$21.28
Value
$21.28
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
352-584 (936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.