Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Capitals, while the market favors Devils (53%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Devils vs. Capitals

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Capitals (75%) · Capitals at 48¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Devils53¢Capitals47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Capitals

Consensus Traders

Capitals 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$77.61

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Devils 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Devils53%

Capitals48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Devils2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,060

Combined PnL+$90.96

Capitals6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,320

Combined PnL-$168.57

Devils — 25%Capitals — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldy	Devilsavg 51¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$90	37% 11-19 (30)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Devilsavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$40	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$30
└ Capitals leg	Capitalsavg 47¢	$940	$950	+$10
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Capitalsavg 47¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$18.47	46% 81-97 (178)
fyrskenCTR	Capitalsavg 49¢	$4.9K	$1.3K	-$180.25	52% 55-51 (106)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Capitalsavg 47¢	$237.35	$239.88	+$2.53	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
SU suntoriCTR	Capitalsavg 50¢	$142.85	$134.28	-$8.57	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Capitalsavg 48¢	$48	$47	-$1	50% 1585-1605 (3190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Devilsavg 50.9¢	$30.75	$31.7	+$0.96	52% 1712-1564 (3276)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Capitalsavg 47¢	$23.97	$24.22	+$0.25	48% 286-304 (590)

roldy

Devils

Invested

$3,060

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$90

Record

37%

11-19 (30)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$1,960

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,736.48

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.47

Record

46%

81-97 (178)

fyrskenCTR

Capitals

Invested

$4,867.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$180.25

Record

52%

55-51 (106)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Capitals

Invested

$237.35

Value

$239.88

PnL

+$2.53

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

suntoriCTR

Capitals

Invested

$142.85

Value

$134.28

PnL

-$8.57

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$48

Value

$47

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

1585-1605 (3190)

ghorrock<$100

Devils

Invested

$30.75

Value

$31.7

PnL

+$0.96

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$23.97

Value

$24.22

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Devils 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Capitals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.