Devils vs. Jets: O/U 6.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$5.58
52.4¢ → 53.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $938.21 | $947.06 | +$8.85 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $381.46 | $385.6 | +$4.15 | |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $587.64 | $583.44 | -$4.2 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $36.04 | $35.36 | -$0.68 | 50% 1362-1381 (2743) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 52.8¢ | $32.74 | $32.24 | -$0.5 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $7.95 | $7.8 | -$0.15 | 48% 391-428 (819) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 52.5¢ | $5.27 | $5.22 | -$0.05 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
Invested
$1,319.67
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
Both legs:
Invested
$587.64
Value
$583.44
PnL
-$4.2
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$36.04
Value
$35.36
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
1362-1381 (2743)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$32.74
Value
$32.24
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
85-74 (159)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
391-428 (819)
Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.22
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.