Devils vs. Maple Leafs

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (38%) · Devils at 60¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 9

Devils60¢Maple Leafs40¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Devils

Consensus Traders

Devils 38%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

-$397.37

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 59.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Devils

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Devils60%

Maple Leafs41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Devils5 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares23,154

Combined PnL-$363.76

Maple Leafs8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,906

Combined PnL-$33.61

Devils — 38%Maple Leafs — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrDevils 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedDevils 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Devils 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Devilsavg 61.2¢	$12.2K	$11.9K	-$340	51% 1025-997 (2022)
CO cocococococo	Devilsavg 60.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$36.35	52% 1789-1619 (3408)
nigiri99CTR	Maple Leafsavg 43¢	$430	$405	-$25	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$265.21	$268.53	+$3.32	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$260.29	$263.54	+$3.25	48% 520-559 (1079)
38 38791873984189CTR	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$237.2	$240.17	+$2.97	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
IC ic4creamCTR	Maple Leafsavg 43¢	$253.7	$238.95	-$14.75	56% 2876-2262 (5138)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Devilsavg 59¢	$235.98	$237.98	+$2	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Maple Leafsavg 43¢	$139.93	$132.07	-$7.86	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
WE westing.v1<$100	Devilsavg 59¢	$83.49	$84.25	+$0.76	49% 61-63 (124)
PA Pan9X	Devilsavg 55.4¢	$143.45	$63.07	+$9.83	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 40.4¢	$36.33	$36.16	-$0.17	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$928.97	$0.68	+$4.64	59% 52401-37126 (89527)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Devils

Invested

$12,240

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$340

Record

51%

1025-997 (2022)

cocococococo

Devils

Invested

$1,527.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$36.35

Record

52%

1789-1619 (3408)

nigiri99CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$430

Value

$405

PnL

-$25

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

SnakeBallCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$265.21

Value

$268.53

PnL

+$3.32

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$260.29

Value

$263.54

PnL

+$3.25

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

38791873984189CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$237.2

Value

$240.17

PnL

+$2.97

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

ic4creamCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$253.7

Value

$238.95

PnL

-$14.75

Record

56%

2876-2262 (5138)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Devils

Invested

$235.98

Value

$237.98

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$139.93

Value

$132.07

PnL

-$7.86

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

westing.v1<$100

Devils

Invested

$83.49

Value

$84.25

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

Pan9X

Devils

Invested

$143.45

Value

$63.07

PnL

+$9.83

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$36.33

Value

$36.16

PnL

-$0.17

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$928.97

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$4.64

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Devils

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrDevils 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedDevils 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Devils 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.