Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Devils, while the market favors Golden Knights (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Devils vs. Golden Knights
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (50%) · Devils at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Devils
4
Devils 50%
$2.8K
$24.12
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDevils at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldyCTR | Devilsavg 48¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$25.84 | 55% 1410-1176 (2586) |
CO cocococococo | Golden Knightsavg 51.9¢ | $303.76 | $298.21 | -$2.63 | 52% 1649-1523 (3172) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Devilsavg 46.9¢ | $21.12 | $21.62 | +$0.73 | 50% 273-275 (548) |
PA para-Vision<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 51¢ | $18.16 | $18.34 | +$0.18 | 56% 204-162 (366) |
Invested
$2,476.53
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$25.84
Record
55%
1410-1176 (2586)
Invested
$303.76
Value
$298.21
PnL
-$2.63
Record
52%
1649-1523 (3172)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$21.12
Value
$21.62
PnL
+$0.73
Record
50%
273-275 (548)
Invested
$18.16
Value
$18.34
PnL
+$0.18
Record
56%
204-162 (366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.