Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$525.61

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 68.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,095

Combined PnL-$125.39

Under8 traders

Total Value$584.79

Total Shares1,941

Combined PnL-$400.22

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Vladooos	Overavg 85.4¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$382.26	60% 27-18 (45)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 37.6¢	$311	$566.51	+$255.51	23% 62-205 (267)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 57¢	$474.69	$262.4	-$212.29	16% 62-325 (387)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 63¢	$301.64	$146.03	-$155.61	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 63.7¢	$117.04	$57.9	-$59.14	44% 93-116 (209)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 15.9¢	$93.33	$55.04	+$42.29	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$9.24	$20.13	+$10.89	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$59.12	$19.22	-$39.91	45% 143-173 (316)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$6.11	$13.71	+$7.6	36% 577-1014 (1591)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$4.42	$10.36	+$5.95	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 59¢	$2.85	$4.2	+$1.35	46% 1805-2097 (3902)

Vladooos

Over

Invested

$1,932.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$382.26

Record

60%

27-18 (45)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$311

Value

$566.51

PnL

+$255.51

Record

23%

62-205 (267)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$474.69

Value

$262.4

PnL

-$212.29

Record

16%

62-325 (387)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$301.64

Value

$146.03

PnL

-$155.61

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$117.04

Value

$57.9

PnL

-$59.14

Record

44%

93-116 (209)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$93.33

Value

$55.04

PnL

+$42.29

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.24

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$10.89

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.12

Value

$19.22

PnL

-$39.91

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.11

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$7.6

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.42

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$5.95

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.35

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.