Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $733 held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$732.88

Combined PnL

$52.86

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 100¢

+58% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$688.95

Total Shares697

Combined PnL+$255.18

Under6 traders

Total Value$43.93

Total Shares1,098

Combined PnL-$202.32

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 62¢	$320	$515.61	+$195.61	23% 62-205 (267)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 67¢	$69.37	$99.39	+$30.02	35% 220-410 (630)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Overavg 66¢	$41.07	$59.74	+$18.67	51% 108-103 (211)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 38¢	$220.23	$23.18	-$197.05	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 66¢	$25.53	$14.21	+$10.88	42% 419-573 (992)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4.4¢	$7.58	$8.1	+$0.52	36% 577-1014 (1591)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 4.3¢	$6.5	$6	-$0.5	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 4.5¢	$4.5	$4	-$0.5	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$4.84	$0.05	-$4.79	46% 622-743 (1365)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$320

Value

$515.61

PnL

+$195.61

Record

23%

62-205 (267)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$69.37

Value

$99.39

PnL

+$30.02

Record

35%

220-410 (630)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Over

Invested

$41.07

Value

$59.74

PnL

+$18.67

Record

51%

108-103 (211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$220.23

Value

$23.18

PnL

-$197.05

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$25.53

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$10.88

Record

42%

419-573 (992)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.58

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.52

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.84

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.79

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.