Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Flyers, while the market favors Wild (64%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wild vs. Flyers

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (54%) · Flyers at 37¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 4

Wild64¢Flyers36¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flyers

Consensus Traders

Flyers 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.4K

Combined PnL

-$556.19

Smart Money Entry

37.2¢ → 36.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wild64%

Flyers37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers7 traders

Total Value$36.0K

Total Shares98,633

Combined PnL-$643.27

Wild6 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares13,327

Combined PnL+$87.08

Flyers — 54%Wild — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlyers 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFlyers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlyers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Wild 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO Gourmet1CTR	Flyersavg 37.2¢	$33.8K	$33.2K	-$596.21	47% 163-187 (350)
RO roldy	Wildavg 62.7¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$58.09	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Wildavg 63¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$24.87	53% 2374-2064 (4438)
VeryLucky888CTR	Flyersavg 36.9¢	$796.92	$787.71	-$9.21	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Flyersavg 37.4¢	$707.4	$699.88	-$7.53	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 37.4¢	$398.7	$388.72	-$9.98
└ Wild leg	Wildavg 63¢	$308.7	$311.15	+$2.45
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Flyersavg 39.7¢	$746.33	$695.57	-$22.57	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
GA gagarin59CTR	Flyersavg 37¢	$631.96	$623.42	-$8.54	51% 766-737 (1503)
fyrskenCTR	Flyersavg 38¢	$532	$518	-$6.99	49% 310-329 (639)
VE Venusian	Wildavg 62¢	$384.09	$390.29	+$3.1	53% 916-813 (1729)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Flyersavg 37¢	$256.79	$256.76	-$0.04	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 37¢	$162.43	$160.23	-$2.2
└ Wild leg	Wildavg 62.1¢	$94.36	$96.52	+$2.16
HE HerdoniaCTR	Flyersavg 37¢	$132.65	$132.65	+$0	51% 3571-3496 (7067)
LI Limousin<$100	Wildavg 62¢	$94.24	$95.76	+$0.76	56% 942-736 (1678)
MA MadridTime<$100	Wildavg 62¢	$20.15	$20.48	+$0.16	52% 830-771 (1601)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Flyersavg 36¢	$18	$18.25	+$0.25	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
LI LightParadox<$100	Wildavg 62¢	$12.71	$12.92	+$0.1	54% 906-787 (1693)

Gourmet1CTR

Flyers

Invested

$33,839.99

Value

$33.2K

PnL

-$596.21

Record

47%

163-187 (350)

roldy

Wild

Invested

$4,722.97

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$58.09

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

0x0A77exmm

Wild

Invested

$3,132.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$24.87

Record

53%

2374-2064 (4438)

VeryLucky888CTR

Flyers

Invested

$796.92

Value

$787.71

PnL

-$9.21

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$707.4

Value

$699.88

PnL

-$7.53

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Flyers$398.737.4¢-$9.98

Wild$308.763¢+$2.45

omnibus-076daaCTR

Flyers

Invested

$746.33

Value

$695.57

PnL

-$22.57

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

gagarin59CTR

Flyers

Invested

$631.96

Value

$623.42

PnL

-$8.54

Record

51%

766-737 (1503)

fyrskenCTR

Flyers

Invested

$532

Value

$518

PnL

-$6.99

Record

49%

310-329 (639)

Venusian

Wild

Invested

$384.09

Value

$390.29

PnL

+$3.1

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$256.79

Value

$256.76

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

Both legs:

Flyers$162.4337¢-$2.2

Wild$94.3662.1¢+$2.16

HerdoniaCTR

Flyers

Invested

$132.65

Value

$132.65

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3571-3496 (7067)

Limousin<$100

Wild

Invested

$94.24

Value

$95.76

PnL

+$0.76

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

MadridTime<$100

Wild

Invested

$20.15

Value

$20.48

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$18

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

LightParadox<$100

Wild

Invested

$12.71

Value

$12.92

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlyers 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFlyers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlyers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Wild 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flyers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.