Wild vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 73¢ · $482 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$481.95
-$0.12
72¢ → 73¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 72¢ | $406.8 | $406.8 | +$0 | 48% 927-1003 (1930) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $53.45 | $53.45 | +$0 | 50% 1423-1425 (2848) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $10.8 | $10.8 | +$0 | 49% 435-456 (891) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $8.45 | $8.33 | -$0.12 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $2.57 | $2.57 | +$0 | 31% 176-393 (569) |
Invested
$406.8
Value
$406.8
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
927-1003 (1930)
Invested
$53.45
Value
$53.45
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1423-1425 (2848)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
435-456 (891)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.33
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$2.57
Value
$2.57
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
176-393 (569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.