Wild vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Over26¢Under74¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$129.36

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 74.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,007

Combined PnL-$128.84

Over4 traders

Total Value$431.74

Total Shares1,942

Combined PnL-$0.52

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Underavg 77.9¢	$5.1K	$1.6K	-$192.57	— 12-5 (17)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 74.7¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	+$56	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 22¢	$198	$198	+$0	35% 163-305 (468)
GA Gaditima	Underavg 74¢	$185	$190	+$5	48% 289-310 (599)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 22.1¢	$190.19	$188.98	-$1.21	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Underavg 74¢	$87.48	$91.5	+$4.02	33% 106-214 (320)
└ Under leg	Underavg 74¢	$64.38	$65.25	+$0.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 22¢	$23.1	$26.25	+$3.15
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 22.2¢	$36.48	$36.22	-$0.26	42% 1054-1470 (2524)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 74.3¢	$43.73	$27.5	+$2.73	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 22.5¢	$14.15	$8.54	+$0.95	53% 1867-1658 (3525)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Under

Invested

$5,058.01

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$192.57

Record

—

12-5 (17)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,595.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$56

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$198

Value

$198

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

163-305 (468)

Gaditima

Under

Invested

$185

Value

$190

PnL

+$5

Record

48%

289-310 (599)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$190.19

Value

$188.98

PnL

-$1.21

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

OddstormARB<$100

Under

Invested

$87.48

Value

$91.5

PnL

+$4.02

Record

33%

106-214 (320)

Both legs:

Invested

$36.48

Value

$36.22

PnL

-$0.26

Record

42%

1054-1470 (2524)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$43.73

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$2.73

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.15

Value

$8.54

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.