Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bruins, while the market favors Wild (85%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bruins (14%) · Bruins at 15¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Bruins
7
Bruins 14%
$2.7K
$464
Research grade
AvoidBruins at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 85%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmm | Wildavg 31¢ | $505.52 | $1.4K | +$847.98 | 46% 53-62 (115) |
 nigiri99 | Wildavg 32¢ | $368.64 | $541.44 | +$172.8 | 51% 628-592 (1220) |
PU purplegatto | Wildavg 32¢ | $178.56 | $474.3 | +$295.74 | 68% 2653-1240 (3893) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Bruinsavg 68¢ | $1.2K | $293.36 | -$880.07 | 56% 566-451 (1017) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Wildavg 44¢ | $22 | $41.5 | +$19.5 | 49% 1751-1796 (3547) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Wildavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $16.6 | +$7.2 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Wildavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $2.35 | +$0.85 | 45% 281-347 (628) |
Invested
$505.52
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$847.98
Record
46%
53-62 (115)
nigiri99Invested
$368.64
Value
$541.44
PnL
+$172.8
Record
51%
628-592 (1220)
Invested
$178.56
Value
$474.3
PnL
+$295.74
Record
68%
2653-1240 (3893)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$1,173.43
Value
$293.36
PnL
-$880.07
Record
56%
566-451 (1017)
Invested
$22
Value
$41.5
PnL
+$19.5
Record
49%
1751-1796 (3547)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$16.6
PnL
+$7.2
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.85
Record
45%
281-347 (628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.