Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bruins, while the market favors Wild (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Wild vs. Bruins
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bruins (71%) · Bruins at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Bruins
7
Bruins 71%
$1.4K
$4.54
45.9¢ → 46¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBruins at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldyCTR | Bruinsavg 46¢ | $771.49 | $771.49 | +$0 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Bruinsavg 47¢ | $196.46 | $192.28 | -$4.18 | 48% 3052-3353 (6405) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Bruinsavg 45.7¢ | $154.74 | $155.92 | +$1.18 | 49% 1449-1486 (2935) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Bruinsavg 44¢ | $110 | $115 | +$5 | 49% 257-270 (527) |
 fyrsken<$100 | Wildavg 52¢ | $92.78 | $95.45 | +$2.68 | 51% 53-50 (103) |
 KnureKnume<$100 | Wildavg 53.5¢ | $53.49 | $53.5 | +$0.01 | 15% 15-88 (103) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Bruinsavg 46.5¢ | $24.7 | $21.56 | -$0.15 | 52% 1608-1475 (3083) |
Invested
$771.49
Value
$771.49
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$196.46
Value
$192.28
PnL
-$4.18
Record
48%
3052-3353 (6405)
Invested
$154.74
Value
$155.92
PnL
+$1.18
Record
49%
1449-1486 (2935)
Invested
$110
Value
$115
PnL
+$5
Record
49%
257-270 (527)
fyrsken<$100Invested
$92.78
Value
$95.45
PnL
+$2.68
Record
51%
53-50 (103)
KnureKnume<$100Invested
$53.49
Value
$53.5
PnL
+$0.01
Record
15%
15-88 (103)
Invested
$24.7
Value
$21.56
PnL
-$0.15
Record
52%
1608-1475 (3083)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.