Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bruins, while the market favors Golden Knights (52%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Golden Knights vs. Bruins
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bruins (67%) · Bruins at 49¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Bruins
6
Bruins 67%
$16.3K
$63.33
49¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBruins at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $7.3K | $7.3K | -$0 | 47% 389-441 (830) |
PA para-VisionCTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$70.01 | 55% 221-178 (399) |
 fyrsken | Golden Knightsavg 51¢ | $765 | $765 | -$7.5 | 48% 300-320 (620) |
CO cocococococo | Golden Knightsavg 51¢ | $614 | $614 | +$0 | 52% 1666-1538 (3204) |
PI PIPIZINCTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $301.35 | $304.43 | +$3.08 | 51% 431-417 (848) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $297.44 | $297.83 | -$2.26 | 54% 3443-2988 (6431) |
Invested
$7,350
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
389-441 (830)
Invested
$6,859.99
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$70.01
Record
55%
221-178 (399)
fyrskenInvested
$765
Value
$765
PnL
-$7.5
Record
48%
300-320 (620)
Invested
$614
Value
$614
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1666-1538 (3204)
Invested
$301.35
Value
$304.43
PnL
+$3.08
Record
51%
431-417 (848)
Invested
$297.44
Value
$297.83
PnL
-$2.26
Record
54%
3443-2988 (6431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.