Panthers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 76¢ · $548 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 33%
2 arb excluded
$547.51
-$22.79
Research grade
NeutralOver at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 79.9¢ | $217.95 | $207.34 | -$10.61 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 58.6¢ | $177.37 | $169.82 | -$7.55 | 54% 1657-1434 (3091) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 58.6¢ | $146.08 | $132.11 | -$13.97 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 39¢ | $31.3 | $37.72 | +$6.42 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $169.97 | $107.36 | -$62.6 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 38¢ | $152 | $80.03 | -$71.97 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.6¢ | $17.97 | $27.33 | +$9.37 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 40.1¢ | $73.97 | $49.17 | -$6.81 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $19.19 | $13.81 | -$5.37 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
Invested
$217.95
Value
$207.34
PnL
-$10.61
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$177.37
Value
$169.82
PnL
-$7.55
Record
54%
1657-1434 (3091)
Both legs:
Invested
$169.97
Value
$107.36
PnL
-$62.6
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.97
Value
$49.17
PnL
-$6.81
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$19.19
Value
$13.81
PnL
-$5.37
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.