Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (85%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 16¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$57.67

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 15.5¢

-75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$949.07

Total Shares1,354

Combined PnL+$412.02

Over4 traders

Total Value$473.5

Total Shares1,538

Combined PnL-$469.7

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 35.1¢	$388.66	$753.61	+$364.95	47% 1052-1201 (2253)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 65¢	$927.55	$442.37	-$485.18	51% 628-592 (1220)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 50¢	$44.84	$62.71	+$17.88	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 36¢	$28.44	$53.72	+$25.28	48% 372-398 (770)
alpheclabs2<$100	Underavg 74¢	$44.37	$46.77	+$2.4	46% 326-390 (716)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 73.9¢	$27.33	$28.85	+$1.52	38% 1276-2064 (3340)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 29.9¢	$38.57	$17.15	+$17.14	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 20.8¢	$14.14	$11.42	-$1.82	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.4	-$0	34% 169-323 (492)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$2.4	$2.56	+$0.16	50% 2654-2620 (5274)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$388.66

Value

$753.61

PnL

+$364.95

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$927.55

Value

$442.37

PnL

-$485.18

Record

51%

628-592 (1220)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$44.84

Value

$62.71

PnL

+$17.88

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$28.44

Value

$53.72

PnL

+$25.28

Record

48%

372-398 (770)

alpheclabs2<$100

Under

Invested

$44.37

Value

$46.77

PnL

+$2.4

Record

46%

326-390 (716)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$27.33

Value

$28.85

PnL

+$1.52

Record

38%

1276-2064 (3340)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.57

Value

$17.15

PnL

+$17.14

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.14

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$1.82

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

169-323 (492)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.