Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (63%) · Oilers at 99¢ · $631 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Oilers
8
Oilers 63%
$631.29
-$31.85
84.8¢ → 98.6¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOilers at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NordhavenCap | Oilersavg 87¢ | $440 | $452.64 | +$12.64 | 34% 124-243 (367) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Oilersavg 76¢ | $76 | $81 | +$5 | 56% 574-455 (1029) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Oilersavg 81¢ | $49.82 | $55.05 | +$5.23 | 54% 38-33 (71) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 13¢ | $65.75 | $27.82 | -$37.93 | 45% 329-396 (725) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 19¢ | $20.73 | $6 | -$14.73 | 50% 2685-2651 (5336) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Oilersavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.58 | -$0.22 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Oilersavg 76¢ | $3.17 | $3.38 | +$0.21 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 19¢ | $2.87 | $0.83 | -$2.04 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
Invested
$440
Value
$452.64
PnL
+$12.64
Record
34%
124-243 (367)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$76
Value
$81
PnL
+$5
Record
56%
574-455 (1029)
Invested
$49.82
Value
$55.05
PnL
+$5.23
Record
54%
38-33 (71)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$65.75
Value
$27.82
PnL
-$37.93
Record
45%
329-396 (725)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$6
PnL
-$14.73
Record
50%
2685-2651 (5336)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.58
PnL
-$0.22
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
Invested
$3.17
Value
$3.38
PnL
+$0.21
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$0.83
PnL
-$2.04
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.