Oilers vs. Maple Leafs

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (22%) · Oilers at 57¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 15

Oilers57¢Maple Leafs43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 22%

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$218.9

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oilers57%

Maple Leafs43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oilers2 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares15,723

Combined PnL+$157.23

Maple Leafs7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares15,761

Combined PnL+$61.68

Oilers — 22%Maple Leafs — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaple Leafs 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMaple Leafs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Libratus007	Oilersavg 58¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$120	— 3-7 (10)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Maple Leafsavg 42¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$65.53	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
RO roldy	Oilersavg 58¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$37.23	37% 11-19 (30)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 41¢	$387.53	$387.53	+$0	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
fyrskenCTR	Maple Leafsavg 42¢	$378	$369	-$9	52% 56-52 (108)
38 38791873984189CTR	Maple Leafsavg 41.5¢	$296.36	$288.82	+$7.26	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 42.6¢	$45.57	$43.87	-$1.7	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 43.2¢	$8.04	$7.63	-$0.42	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.05	+$0	41% 698-1011 (1709)

Libratus007

Oilers

Invested

$6,960

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$120

Record

—

3-7 (10)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$5,504.51

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$65.53

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

roldy

Oilers

Invested

$2,159.27

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$37.23

Record

37%

11-19 (30)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$387.53

Value

$387.53

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

fyrskenCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$378

Value

$369

PnL

-$9

Record

52%

56-52 (108)

38791873984189CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$296.36

Value

$288.82

PnL

+$7.26

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$45.57

Value

$43.87

PnL

-$1.7

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$8.04

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$0.42

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

698-1011 (1709)

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaple Leafs 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMaple Leafs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.