Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (33%) · Flyers at 67¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 16

Oilers34¢Flyers66¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flyers

Consensus Traders

Flyers 33%

Total Value

$31.0K

Combined PnL

$43.03

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 66.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oilers34%

Flyers67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers3 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares32,075

Combined PnL+$106.56

Oilers6 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares28,859

Combined PnL-$63.52

Flyers — 33%Oilers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOilers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOilers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Oilers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Flyersavg 65¢	$13.7K	$13.8K	+$105.02	45% 24-29 (53)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Flyersavg 66¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	+$0	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
LI Libratus007CTR	Oilersavg 35¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	-$100	— 4-8 (12)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Oilersavg 34¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$35.29	45% 74-92 (166)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Oilersavg 34¢	$340	$345	+$5	31% 507-1145 (1652)
fyrsken	Flyersavg 64.6¢	$271.08	$272.62	+$1.54	48% 70-77 (147)
PU purplegattoCTR	Oilersavg 35.4¢	$148.33	$142.6	-$5.73	68% 2684-1270 (3954)
38 38791873984189CTR	Oilersavg 34¢	$129.2	$131.1	+$1.9	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Oilersavg 33¢	$0.49	$0.51	+$0.01	56% 695-541 (1236)

chubbytoro

Flyers

Invested

$13,652.77

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$105.02

Record

45%

24-29 (53)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Flyers

Invested

$7,029.63

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Libratus007CTR

Oilers

Invested

$7,000

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

—

4-8 (12)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Oilers

Invested

$2,399.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$35.29

Record

45%

74-92 (166)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Oilers

Invested

$340

Value

$345

PnL

+$5

Record

31%

507-1145 (1652)

fyrsken

Flyers

Invested

$271.08

Value

$272.62

PnL

+$1.54

Record

48%

70-77 (147)

purplegattoCTR

Oilers

Invested

$148.33

Value

$142.6

PnL

-$5.73

Record

68%

2684-1270 (3954)

38791873984189CTR

Oilers

Invested

$129.2

Value

$131.1

PnL

+$1.9

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

56%

695-541 (1236)

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOilers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOilers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Oilers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flyers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.