Oilers vs. Flyers

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (45%) · Oilers at 57¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 16

Oilers57¢Flyers43¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 45%

Total Value

$51.4K

Combined PnL

-$252.03

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oilers57%

Flyers43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers6 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares52,165

Combined PnL+$3.1

Oilers5 traders

Total Value$29.3K

Total Shares51,029

Combined PnL-$255.12

Flyers — 55%Oilers — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oilers) and the top 1000 (10 on Flyers) disagree here.

whaleOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOilers 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Flyersavg 42¢	$19.1K	$19.1K	-$0	53% 117-104 (221)
nigiri99	Oilersavg 58¢	$14.7K	$14.6K	-$130.68	50% 747-737 (1484)
LI Libratus007	Oilersavg 58¢	$14.6K	$14.4K	-$125.54	— 4-8 (12)
RO roldyCTR	Flyersavg 42¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$1.99	47% 20-23 (43)
38 38791873984189CTR	Flyersavg 42¢	$214.2	$214.2	+$0	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
WE westing.v1	Oilersavg 58¢	$172.97	$172.97	+$0	25% 36-109 (145)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Oilersavg 58¢	$99.5	$99.5	+$0	46% 643-756 (1399)
VeryLucky888	Oilersavg 57¢	$103.26	$82.03	+$1.1	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR<$100	Flyersavg 43¢	$36.4	$35.98	-$0.42	24% 36-117 (153)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Flyersavg 40¢	$30.72	$32.26	+$1.54	49% 395-410 (805)
fyrskenCTR<$100	Flyersavg 42¢	$21.72	$21.72	-$0	48% 67-73 (140)

taylorsversionCTR

Flyers

Invested

$19,085.55

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

117-104 (221)

nigiri99

Oilers

Invested

$14,682.78

Value

$14.6K

PnL

-$130.68

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

Libratus007

Oilers

Invested

$14,563.01

Value

$14.4K

PnL

-$125.54

Record

—

4-8 (12)

roldyCTR

Flyers

Invested

$2,633.2

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.99

Record

47%

20-23 (43)

38791873984189CTR

Flyers

Invested

$214.2

Value

$214.2

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

westing.v1

Oilers

Invested

$172.97

Value

$172.97

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

36-109 (145)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Oilers

Invested

$99.5

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

VeryLucky888

Oilers

Invested

$103.26

Value

$82.03

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$36.4

Value

$35.98

PnL

-$0.42

Record

24%

36-117 (153)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$30.72

Value

$32.26

PnL

+$1.54

Record

49%

395-410 (805)

fyrskenCTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$21.72

Value

$21.72

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

67-73 (140)

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oilers) and the top 1000 (10 on Flyers) disagree here.

whaleOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOilers 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.