Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$3.8K
$62.19
55.3¢ → 83.5¢
+51% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+21 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Underavg 55¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$56.68 | 53% 109-98 (207) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 56¢ | $243.63 | $243.66 | +$0.03 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
BA banepir | Underavg 56¢ | $224 | $224 | -$0 | 57% 16-12 (28) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $55.07 | $60.03 | +$4.97 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $18.49 | $18.49 | +$0 | 56% 541-433 (974) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $11.74 | $12.17 | +$0.43 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $12.2 | $10 | +$0 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.2 | +$0.05 | 41% 708-1019 (1727) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $0.52 | $0.55 | +$0.03 | 38% 1175-1954 (3129) |
Invested
$3,196.39
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$56.68
Record
53%
109-98 (207)
Invested
$243.63
Value
$243.66
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
Invested
$224
Value
$224
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
16-12 (28)
Invested
$55.07
Value
$60.03
PnL
+$4.97
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$18.49
Value
$18.49
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
541-433 (974)
Invested
$11.74
Value
$12.17
PnL
+$0.43
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
708-1019 (1727)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.03
Record
38%
1175-1954 (3129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.