Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 84.5¢

+92% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,576

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over2 traders

Total Value$16.18

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$0.38

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 44¢	$580.04	$1.1K	+$553.68	45% 82-100 (182)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 44¢	$241.12	$465.52	+$229.49	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 44¢	$220	$430	+$210	54% 1599-1379 (2978)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 44¢	$50.41	$98.53	+$48.12	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 44¢	$37.84	$73.96	+$36.12	48% 372-398 (770)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$16.2	$14.2	+$1.8	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 44¢	$6.97	$13.62	+$6.65	48% 2318-2517 (4835)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$3.4	$1.99	-$1.42	50% 2654-2620 (5274)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$580.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$553.68

Record

45%

82-100 (182)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$241.12

Value

$465.52

PnL

+$229.49

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$220

Value

$430

PnL

+$210

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$50.41

Value

$98.53

PnL

+$48.12

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$37.84

Value

$73.96

PnL

+$36.12

Record

48%

372-398 (770)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.2

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$6.97

Value

$13.62

PnL

+$6.65

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$1.42

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.