Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (13%) · Red Wings at 57¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 15

Lightning43¢Red Wings57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Red Wings

Consensus Traders

Red Wings 13%

Total Value

$27.5K

Combined PnL

$24.75

Research grade

NeutralRed Wings at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lightning43%

Red Wings57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Red Wings1 trader

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares28,112

Combined PnL+$140.56

Lightning7 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares26,635

Combined PnL-$115.81

Red Wings — 13%Lightning — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLightning 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Lightning 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Red Wingsavg 57¢	$16.0K	$16.2K	+$140.56	52% 106-98 (204)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Lightningavg 43¢	$10.1K	$10.0K	-$117.53	50% 2506-2466 (4972)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Lightningavg 43¢	$782.72	$782.88	+$0.16	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
fyrskenCTR	Lightningavg 43¢	$474.29	$474.29	+$0	52% 55-51 (106)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Lightningavg 42¢	$42	$43	+$1	54% 492-416 (908)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Lightningavg 42¢	$23.52	$24.08	+$0.56	48% 286-304 (590)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Lightningavg 43¢	$14.63	$14.63	+$0	52% 1712-1564 (3276)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lightningavg 43¢	$6.45	$6.45	+$0	50% 1585-1605 (3190)

taylorsversion

Red Wings

Invested

$16,023.86

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$140.56

Record

52%

106-98 (204)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Lightning

Invested

$10,107.89

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$117.53

Record

50%

2506-2466 (4972)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Lightning

Invested

$782.72

Value

$782.88

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

fyrskenCTR

Lightning

Invested

$474.29

Value

$474.29

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

55-51 (106)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$42

Value

$43

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

492-416 (908)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$23.52

Value

$24.08

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$14.63

Value

$14.63

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1585-1605 (3190)

Research grade

NeutralRed Wings at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLightning 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Lightning 86% · 7

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Red Wings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.