Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lightning (50%) · Lightning at 72¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Red Wings28¢Lightning72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lightning

Consensus Traders

Lightning 50%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$347.95

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 71.5¢

-14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Red Wings28%

Lightning72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lightning5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,222

Combined PnL-$799.35

Red Wings5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares7,419

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Lightning — 50%Red Wings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lightning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLightning 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lightning 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Lightningavg 83.4¢	$4.3K	$3.5K	-$791.85	56% 574-455 (1029)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Red Wingsavg 16.5¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$1.0K	53% 109-98 (207)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Red Wingsavg 16¢	$94.24	$188.48	+$94.24	44% 283-358 (641)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 16¢	$46.33	$92.66	+$46.33	68% 2656-1243 (3899)
GH ghorrock<$100	Lightningavg 84¢	$36.19	$29.29	-$6.89	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lightningavg 68¢	$18.55	$19.51	+$0.95	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 26.8¢	$10.06	$10.69	+$0.63	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LR lryyy<$100	Lightningavg 82¢	$6.38	$5.56	-$0.82	46% 877-1050 (1927)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lightningavg 83¢	$4.15	$3.4	-$0.75	42% 740-1034 (1774)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.42	-$0.18	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

0xheavy888

Lightning

Invested

$4,286.37

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$791.85

Record

56%

574-455 (1029)

taylorsversionCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$1,073.16

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

109-98 (207)

Forecastication2CTR

Red Wings

Invested

$94.24

Value

$188.48

PnL

+$94.24

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$46.33

Value

$92.66

PnL

+$46.33

Record

68%

2656-1243 (3899)

ghorrock<$100

Lightning

Invested

$36.19

Value

$29.29

PnL

-$6.89

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Pan9X<$100

Lightning

Invested

$18.55

Value

$19.51

PnL

+$0.95

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$10.06

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

lryyy<$100

Lightning

Invested

$6.38

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$0.82

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lightning

Invested

$4.15

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.75

Record

42%

740-1034 (1774)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lightning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLightning 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lightning 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lightning wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.