Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 9.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 89¢ · $744 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$744.37
$7.36
89.7¢ → 88.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 87¢ | $348 | $354 | +$6 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 93¢ | $221.34 | $207.06 | -$14.28 | 52% 399-371 (770) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Underavg 94¢ | $92.92 | $92 | -$0.92 | 30% 67-157 (224) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $34.44 | $35.7 | +$1.25 | 49% 1103-1157 (2260) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $11.49 | $21.34 | +$9.85 | 35% 302-554 (856) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 6¢ | $5.52 | $11.96 | +$6.44 | 47% 2408-2683 (5091) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $12.19 | $11.77 | -$0.42 | 49% 1475-1523 (2998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $10.11 | $9.67 | -$0.44 | 53% 1163-1023 (2186) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $1 | $0.88 | -$0.12 | 23% 62-205 (267) |
Invested
$348
Value
$354
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
nigiri99Invested
$221.34
Value
$207.06
PnL
-$14.28
Record
52%
399-371 (770)
Invested
$92.92
Value
$92
PnL
-$0.92
Record
30%
67-157 (224)
Invested
$34.44
Value
$35.7
PnL
+$1.25
Record
49%
1103-1157 (2260)
Invested
$11.49
Value
$21.34
PnL
+$9.85
Record
35%
302-554 (856)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$11.96
PnL
+$6.44
Record
47%
2408-2683 (5091)
Invested
$12.19
Value
$11.77
PnL
-$0.42
Record
49%
1475-1523 (2998)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$9.67
PnL
-$0.44
Record
53%
1163-1023 (2186)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$0.12
Record
23%
62-205 (267)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.