Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Red Wings (60%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Panthers (-1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (50%) · Panthers at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Panthers41¢Red Wings59¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$7.85

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 40.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Red Wings 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers41%

Red Wings60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,033

Combined PnL+$9.87

Red Wings5 traders

Total Value$752.05

Total Shares1,243

Combined PnL-$17.72

Panthers — 50%Red Wings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRed Wings 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Panthersavg 41¢	$820	$810	-$10	46% 172-204 (376)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Panthersavg 39.9¢	$641.93	$651.09	+$9.16	41% 49-71 (120)
fyrsken	Red Wingsavg 62¢	$619.99	$599.99	-$20	48% 30-32 (62)
PU purplegattoCTR	Panthersavg 38¢	$137.18	$146.21	+$9.03	68% 2613-1210 (3823)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Red Wingsavg 59¢	$69.62	$70.8	+$1.18	43% 119-161 (280)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Red Wingsavg 59¢	$58.41	$59.4	+$0.99	29% 51-126 (177)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Panthersavg 38¢	$18.81	$20.05	+$1.24	53% 99-88 (187)
GH ghorrock<$100	Red Wingsavg 61¢	$13.93	$14.29	+$0.37	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0xheavy888<$100	Red Wingsavg 61¢	$7.82	$7.56	-$0.26	56% 312-248 (560)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Panthersavg 37¢	$5.55	$6	+$0.45	49% 1100-1151 (2251)

GaditimaCTR

Panthers

Invested

$820

Value

$810

PnL

-$10

Record

46%

172-204 (376)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Panthers

Invested

$641.93

Value

$651.09

PnL

+$9.16

Record

41%

49-71 (120)

fyrsken

Red Wings

Invested

$619.99

Value

$599.99

PnL

-$20

Record

48%

30-32 (62)

purplegattoCTR

Panthers

Invested

$137.18

Value

$146.21

PnL

+$9.03

Record

68%

2613-1210 (3823)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$69.62

Value

$70.8

PnL

+$1.18

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

Bagwell306<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$58.41

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$0.99

Record

29%

51-126 (177)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$18.81

Value

$20.05

PnL

+$1.24

Record

53%

99-88 (187)

ghorrock<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$13.93

Value

$14.29

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0xheavy888<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.56

PnL

-$0.26

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$5.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Red Wings 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRed Wings 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.