Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 9.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 89¢ · $649 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$649.06
-$140.24
87.6¢ → 89¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 87.5¢ | $681.36 | $560.69 | -$120.66 | 48% 802-884 (1686) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $81.84 | $66.96 | -$14.88 | 50% 1393-1407 (2800) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 87.6¢ | $12.03 | $9.89 | -$2.14 | 51% 266-256 (522) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $9.68 | $7.92 | -$1.76 | 48% 414-448 (862) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $3.6 | -$0.8 | 23% 150-497 (647) |
Invested
$681.36
Value
$560.69
PnL
-$120.66
Record
48%
802-884 (1686)
Invested
$81.84
Value
$66.96
PnL
-$14.88
Record
50%
1393-1407 (2800)
Invested
$12.03
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$2.14
Record
51%
266-256 (522)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$7.92
PnL
-$1.76
Record
48%
414-448 (862)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.8
Record
23%
150-497 (647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.