Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (87%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 8.5

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 14¢ · $767 held · ended Nov 11

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$766.97

Combined PnL

-$38.71

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$57.76

Total Shares355

Combined PnL-$38.71

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 75.5¢	$604.08	$619.61	+$15.54	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.5¢	$468.13	$384.47	-$83.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 22¢	$135.95	$235.15	+$99.2
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 61.9¢	$70.09	$89.59	+$19.5	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Over leg	Overavg 22¢	$26.74	$46.19	+$19.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.9¢	$43.35	$43.4	+$0.05
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$37.91	$22.78	-$15.13	28% 279-704 (983)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$24.7	$9.75	-$14.95	5% 10-176 (186)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 25.9¢	$12.39	$7.18	-$5.21	28% 285-731 (1016)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$10.77	$6.21	-$4.56	28% 279-730 (1009)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 21.1¢	$3.62	$5.66	+$3.03	49% 444-470 (914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 21.8¢	$6.22	$4.29	-$1.94	54% 383-322 (705)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.9	+$0.05	54% 1657-1434 (3091)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$604.08

Value

$619.61

PnL

+$15.54

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Under$468.1375.5¢-$83.66

Over$135.9522¢+$99.2

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$70.09

Value

$89.59

PnL

+$19.5

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Over$26.7422¢+$19.45

Under$43.3561.9¢+$0.05

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.91

Value

$22.78

PnL

-$15.13

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.7

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$14.95

Record

10-176 (186)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.39

Value

$7.18

PnL

-$5.21

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.77

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$4.56

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.62

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$3.03

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.22

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$1.94

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.