Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$3.7K
$42.97
51.8¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.57 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
RO royalestake | Overavg 51.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$20.15 | 1% 2-178 (180) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $715.11 | $722.55 | +$7.45 | 47% 500-558 (1058) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $139.68 | $141.14 | +$1.45 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $48 | $47.5 | -$0.5 | 56% 105-81 (186) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $12 | $11.88 | -$0.13 | 48% 410-447 (857) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.38 | -$0.02 | 23% 149-494 (643) |
Invested
$1,515
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.57
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$1,181.39
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$20.15
Record
1%
2-178 (180)
Invested
$715.11
Value
$722.55
PnL
+$7.45
Record
47%
500-558 (1058)
Invested
$139.68
Value
$141.14
PnL
+$1.45
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$48
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
56%
105-81 (186)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.88
PnL
-$0.13
Record
48%
410-447 (857)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
23%
149-494 (643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.