Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 76¢ · $774 held · ended Nov 11

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$773.51

Combined PnL

$0.69

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 76¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$177.26

Total Shares216

Combined PnL+$2.99

Under3 traders

Total Value$18.19

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$2.3

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$555.77	$523.56	-$26.34	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$277.76	$344.96	+$67.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 35¢	$271.79	$178.6	-$93.54
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 76.9¢	$98.41	$97.28	-$1.13	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 74.2¢	$66.02	$65.4	+$1.28	49% 444-470 (914)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 35¢	$64.27	$54.49	-$9.78	55% 120-97 (217)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$22.98	$28.54	+$5.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 35¢	$41.29	$25.96	-$15.34
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 62¢	$11.74	$14.58	+$2.84	54% 383-322 (705)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$10.5	$11.5	+$1	53% 5512-4919 (10431)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$6.49	$4.39	-$2.1	25% 114-349 (463)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$3.5	$2.3	-$1.2	26% 181-519 (700)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$555.77

Value

$523.56

PnL

-$26.34

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Over$277.7662¢+$67.2

Under$271.7935¢-$93.54

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$98.41

Value

$97.28

PnL

-$1.13

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$66.02

Value

$65.4

PnL

+$1.28

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$64.27

Value

$54.49

PnL

-$9.78

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

Both legs:

Over$22.9862¢+$5.56

Under$41.2935¢-$15.34

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$11.74

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$2.84

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.5

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

5512-4919 (10431)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.49

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$2.1

Record

25%

114-349 (463)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$1.2

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.